作者：張皓淵  時(shí)間：2019年1月4日

摘要：

  2016年推出員工股份獎勵計劃（目前剩余5500萬(wàn)股可行權股份，行權價(jià)港幣4.01元）后，新的購股權計劃于2019年推出。我們注意到行權條件基于當期KPI，分別于2020/2021/2022年可行權30%/30%/40%購股權數量。其中55%的購股權授予中、高層管理層和銷(xiāo)售。我們相信激勵計劃可以幫助康臣吸引和保留關(guān)鍵人才，我們也相信康臣將執行更多的股份回購，基于其強勁運營(yíng)現金流（18年底4.6億港幣）和凈現金儲備（18年底人民幣7.6億元，相當于其市值的20%）

  截止昨日收盤(pán)，康臣藥業(yè)市值較50億港幣低~30%（50億市值為深港通市值要求）。我們認為管理層將努力維持深港通地位。公司目前19年P(guān)E為6x，香港其他可比公司為12x。我們基于SOTP估值體系，給予公司目標價(jià)11.95港幣（2019年P(guān)E 16x），較當前價(jià)格有170%上漲空間。我們維持“買(mǎi)入”評級，公司的中成藥產(chǎn)品線(xiàn)具有一定防御性且擁有強勁的資本回報潛力（在更多回購前，公司分紅率預計達到5%）

What’s New:

  Consun (1681 HK, BUY)) went up 6% yesterday on shares buyback and staff option plans amidst a sector-wide sell-off. It announced a 63mn share options plan (representing 6.3% of enlarged share base) to certain Directors and employees with exercise price at HK4.476 (6% higher than previous day closing price). It also initiated a share buyback program and repurchased 670,000 shares during last trading hour (accounted for 0.0766% of share base) at a total cost of HKD2.98mn (or HKD4.4/shr).

Our view

  The new Share Options followed the last staff incentive program launched in 2016 (which now has 55mn exercisable shrs w/ exercise price of HKD4.01). We noted the vesting condition based on KPI during the period and exercisable amount for  Apr 2020/21/22 are split into 30%/30%/40%, respectively, and 55% of options are granted to mid to high-level management and sales. We believe the incentive plan can help Consun in attracting and retaining its key talent.

  We also believe Consun would conduct more share buyback, underpinned by its strong operating cash flow (HKD460mn at end-FY18E) and rich net cash (RMB760mn at end 2018E, 20% of current market cap).

  As of yesterday’s close, Consun’s mkt cap is c.30% below HKD5bn (SZ-HK stock connection mkt cap requirement). We think Mgmt will aim to retain the SZ-HK stock connect status. Co. is now trading at 6x 2019E PER vs HK listed peers’ 12x, while we set SOTP-based TP at HK$11.95 (16x 2019E PER), with over 170% upside .

  We maintain BUY rating as we think the stock offers a defensive TCM portfolio and strong capital return potential (we estimate 5% dividend yield before any further buy-back).